The latest estimates indicate that approximately 5.8 billion LED light sources and lamps will gradually reach the end of their service life and be retired in 2024, which will bring considerable demand for secondary replacement and help the LED lighting market get out of the decline. The mid-term reversal has driven overall LED lighting demand to 13.4 billion units.

 Among the lamps in normal use around the world in 2023, the proportion of lamps using LED as the light source has reached about 70%, and the use scenarios of traditional lamps that LED can replace are becoming more and more limited. There are only some scenes with special requirements, and there are other non-LED lighting fixtures. The marginal cost of replacing non-LED lighting with LED lighting continues to rise, and the one-time replacement process may have been completed. Although LED lighting product shipments will decline in 2023, the total volume has not dropped significantly. ERVAN believes that the main reason is that secondary substitution demand has replaced primary substitution demand and has begun to become a key driving force supporting the LED lighting market.

Figure 2022-2028 global LED lighting installation and replacement volume forecast (unit: 10,000 sets)

The demand for secondary replacement of LED lighting will peak from 2025 to 2028.

Generally speaking, the service life of LEDs is expected to be about 25,000 to 40,000 hours, while the actual use time is 7 to 10 years. According to ERVAN research, LED lamps put into use between 2014 and 2016 have gradually reached their life limit since 2023, driving the demand for secondary replacement to increase year by year, and are expected to become the main driving force for the growth of LED lamps. Lighting market in the next five years. strength. By 2025, the demand for secondary replacement will exceed the demand for primary replacement and new installations, becoming a key force in the LED lighting market; by 2028, about 78% of LED lighting demand will come from secondary replacement.

 Overall, despite the huge demand for secondary replacement of LED lighting, there are still difficulties in actual implementation. First of all, home users lack awareness of replacement, including healthy lighting concepts and environmental awareness, and some users in need have a wait-and-see attitude. Secondly, some countries have insufficient understanding of the issues of light science literacy and light environment common sense, and fail to fully realize the commercial and artistic value brought by light technology. Finally, there is a mixed bag of products on the market, and consumers still prioritize price over product quality. Subsequently, the lighting market gradually entered a stable cyclical development stage. In order to attract consumers’ willingness to repurchase, the importance of brand is highlighted.

 ——The source of this information is LEDinside